US and British Intelligence Agencies Reported in October That War Was Planned: Le Monde

The influential French newspaper Le Monde, citing French diplomatic sources, reports that US and British intelligence learned in the fall about Russia's preparations to invade Ukraine and shared this information with their allies, including Germany, France, and Italy.

However, according to the newspaper, while the allies did not doubt the information regarding military preparations, they interpreted it not as Vladimir Putin preparing for actual war but rather as an attempt by him to extract concessions from the West.

The first reports in Western media concerning preparations for an invasion of Ukraine, based on intelligence sources, emerged in early November. In December, US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines confidently told allies that Putin had made the final decision to attack Ukraine, asserting that his opposing statements were merely an attempt to deceive and buy time, Le Monde writes.

Continental European intelligence agencies were skeptical for some time. Differences in situational assessments led the United States and Britain to begin intensive training of the Ukrainian army and increase weapons supply, while Germany, France, and Italy did not do so until the outbreak of the war.