The Probability of Initiating Large-Scale Operations is Low: Analyst

Analyst and political scientist Karen Veranyan stated on his Facebook page: "What is happening now in the Washington-Tehran conflict is a classic proxy war, meaning the conflicting parties are clashing on the territory of third countries or in neutral zones. The US-Tehran proxy war entered an active phase from the very first days of the Arab Spring and the Syrian crisis. Compared to those years, recent developments indicate direct proxy actions, meaning the parties are directly targeting each other's assets without proxy intermediaries or groups (for instance, Hezbollah, Kurds, etc.). However, I remind you that this is not the first instance of direct proxy actions; back in July 2019, Tehran shot down an American drone in the Persian Gulf, and there have been other incidents as well.

Note that I may be mistaken, but I maintain the view that the probability of initiating large-scale operations between the parties is low. The parties will likely limit themselves to several direct proxy actions in third countries or neutral zones (Palestinian-Israeli front, Saudi Arabia-Houthis, Kurds, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Persian Gulf), which will be followed by negotiations. Let’s hope that proxy actions do not spread towards the South Caucasus... A lot depends on the mediation capabilities of the international community..."