Putin May Try to Test NATO Unity and Trump's Response: CBS News

American intelligence believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be more inclined to provocations that could even involve the territories of NATO member states. CBS News, citing assessments from intelligence services, reports that this may pertain to hybrid actions, cyber attacks, and other steps that allow Moscow to deny its involvement without initiating a large-scale military conflict.

U.S. intelligence indicates that the Russian leadership's assessment of the risks associated with such actions has changed compared to a few months ago. According to officials, Moscow's alleged objective may not necessarily involve instigating a widespread war with NATO, but rather testing the alliance's unity and the willingness of President Donald Trump's administration to respond to an attack against one of its allies.

In the United States, there is also a belief that the drone found earlier this week at Leipzig airport has Russian origins. American officials highlight other incidents that have heightened concerns, including the incursion of Russian drones into Romanian airspace, the crossing of Polish territory by a Russian missile, and the increasing frequency of alleged diversions, cyber attacks, and other hybrid actions in Europe.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and other European leaders have repeatedly stated that Russia is expanding its use of hybrid methods. Stoltenberg warned back in December that member states are already under threat, and Russia could be ready to use military force against NATO within five years.

New assessments from U.S. intelligence have emerged against the backdrop of ongoing combat operations in Ukraine and significant losses suffered by Russian troops. According to American officials, Russia loses about 30,000 servicemen per month, or 5-7 thousand per week, which exceeds the pace of recruiting new fighters. Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts by the U.S. to cease the conflict have so far reached an impasse, and there is no clear path to resume negotiations.

The CIA has declined to comment on the assessments from American intelligence services. NATO has also not yet responded to CBS News's inquiry. The publication has also reached out to the Russian embassy in Washington for comment.

CBS News reports that The Wall Street Journal was the first to reveal information about the U.S. intelligence assessments. The situation is particularly significant in relation to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which stipulates that an attack on one of NATO's 32 members is viewed as an attack on the entire alliance.

Previously, Trump had repeatedly questioned the unconditional nature of these commitments, although he had also stated, in other instances, his willingness to defend NATO allies. His administration also aims to increase defense spending in European countries and redistribute responsibility for security within the alliance.