Prigozhin Likely Planned Rebellion in Advance, ISW Says

Prigozhin almost certainly planned the rebellion in advance, but it is impossible to verify this hypothesis based on information obtained from open sources. The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) analyzed the reasons that prompted Prigozhin to organize the rebellion in its report.

Prigozhin apparently decided that the only way for the Wagner PMC to maintain independent power from the Russian Ministry of Defense was to launch a campaign against the military agency, but he overestimated his strength, military experts believe.

In their opinion, the deadline set by the Defense Ministry for July 1 for signing contracts with all volunteer formations was perceived by Prigozhin as a threat to his political and possibly personal survival. He also decided that it was better to attempt to change the leadership of the Russian Ministry of Defense than to completely lose Wagner.

The agreement reached through mediation by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko will likely lead to the operations of the Wagner organization continuing in its current form, although some elements of the organization may persist.

Analysts also believe that the deal brokered by Lukashenko deprives Prigozhin of control over the Wagner group in exchange for dropping the criminal charges that were established the day before.

It is also unclear how the Kremlin will decide the fate of Wagner members who did not participate in the rebellion.

ISW notes that Putin's position towards Shoigu and Gerasimov also remains unclear, and Peskov stated that any military reshuffles fall exclusively under Putin's jurisdiction and were not discussed “in practical terms” during yesterday's negotiations.