The End of the War Could Threaten Putin's Power and Life, Says The Economist

Vladimir Putin has reportedly told some of his close associates, “They will hang me,” according to The Economist, which cites an anonymous source without providing context for the statement. According to the Dozhd portal, the publication suggests that the fear of defeat and losing power could push the Russian president towards a new military escalation.

Sources close to the Kremlin claim that after several weeks of discussions this summer, Putin has seemingly decided to intensify the war. A longtime associate of the Russian leader noted that Putin viewed CIA Director John Ratcliffe's recent visit to Moscow as a sign of U.S. weakness. The Economist's source indicates that Putin perceived the visit of CIA Director Bill Burns in November 2021 similarly, who had come to warn the Russian president about invading Ukraine, yet three months later Russia launched a large-scale war.

The Economist conditions the possible escalation on increased internal pressure on the Kremlin. The end of the war, without at least the minimal objective of capturing the entirety of Donbas, may be perceived as a defeat and, according to the publication, poses a threat to Putin's power and life. At the same time, the continuation of the war in its current format merely wastes economic resources and political capital. Therefore, escalation may appear to Putin as a means of changing the course of military operations without exhibiting weakness.

The Economist deduces the increase in internal pressure from the citizens' sentiments. According to data from the Levada Center, cited by the publication, 57% of respondents characterize the situation in the country as “tense,” pointing to the war, losses, mobilization, and uncertainty about the future. The mood among the Russian elite is said to be “even darker,” the publication asserts. One source reported that nearly five years into the war, the situation is a failure in itself, regardless of its ultimate outcome. Another interlocutor conveyed a growing sense that “the king is naked.”

The Economist also believes that Russia may increase diversionary operations and hybrid attacks against Ukraine's allies, as well as attempt to target supply routes and European companies producing military goods. Moreover, Western intelligence services estimate that Putin does not seek direct confrontation with NATO, the publication emphasizes.