Russia Plans to Mobilize 600,000 People, According to Ukrainian Intelligence

Ukrainian intelligence reports that Russia is planning to mobilize 600,000 people in 2026-2027.

According to Ukraine's Chief Intelligence Directorate and the Foreign Intelligence Service, Russian authorities may initiate a new phase of mobilization after the September elections in the State Duma.

According to Ukrainian data, Moscow intends to recruit a total of 600,000 people into the army during 2026 and 2027, with 300,000 expected this year and another 300,000 next year.

Kyiv believes that potential reasons for the new mobilization include battlefield losses, a weakening of military initiative, and a decrease in the recruitment rates of contract servicemen in Russian regions.

Ukrainian intelligence estimates that Russia lost approximately 240,000 servicemen in the first half of 2026, of which 140,000 were killed or received injuries that prevent them from returning to service. During the same period, around 232,000 people were recruited into the Russian army on a contract basis, according to Ukrainian sources.

Ukrainian intelligence also claims that changes are being made to legislation in Russia to prepare for potential new mobilization, enhancing control over military registration and expanding the possibilities for involving convicts in military service.

According to Kyiv, an electronic notification system is already in operation in Russia, which allows for the application of various restrictions on citizens once a notification appears in the relevant register.

Ukrainian intelligence agencies insist that the number of individuals choosing contract service in some Russian regions has decreased, attributing this decline to growing dissatisfaction with the war.

Kyiv expects a final decision on the new mobilization could be made after the State Duma elections scheduled for September 18-20.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also stated last week that they are anticipating mobilization in Russia. “Putin's calculations are clear: ballistic missile strikes. Next come the 'elections' in Russia. We are confident that after the 'elections', they will have mobilization. We believe it will not take place in major cities. But I don't think they will manage to keep this particularly hidden,” Zelensky said.

He noted that Moscow could conduct what is referred to as 'peripheral mobilization', primarily concerning the regions of Russia.

It is worth mentioning that on August 25, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, Dmitry Peskov, denied any information regarding plans for a new mobilization in Russia, calling them “information nonsense.” However, the Ukrainian side continues to assert its claims. “You know, all of this is thrown out by the Ukrainian authorities. Naturally, the regime is trying to ideologically destabilize the situation in our country. These are information nonsense that are deliberately thrown into the information space,” Peskov said in an interview with RTVI.