Have Assurances Been Given by Russia That the Likelihood of War is Low? Davit Tonoyan Responds

During a meeting of the Commission for the Investigation of the 44-Day War, ruling party MP Vahagn Aleksanyan reminded former Defense Minister Davit Tonoyan about the meetings he had with Sergey Shoigu and the chiefs of the armed forces of Armenia and Russia just days before the military operations, and inquired whether there were any assurances from Russia that the likelihood of war was low. In response, the former minister stated: “If you have my reports regarding my meetings, I will limit myself in terms of content.”

Tonoyan proposed addressing the question in a closed discussion; however, in an open session, he noted that during the period leading up to the war, specifically between July 30 and August 13, when military exercises took place in Nakhchivan and the redeployment of F-16s occurred to Ganja, his experience with long-term cooperation with NATO indicated to all of us — including the general staff and myself — that the deployment of F-16s was not for exercise purposes.

“When almost 4 aircraft were continuously in the air for 6 to 8 hours, at altitudes of 25-45 km, there were even instances where they approached closely enough to prompt the armed forces’ air defense responses, which raised our concerns. When the F-16s were rotated, it meant not only the rotation of pilots but also of the aircraft. This indicates a permanent presence or a serious signal for the commencement of military operations,” Tonoyan explained, noting that since that period, there have been 3 meetings between him and the Russian Defense Minister.

“Yes, there was a request for us to remain calm and show composure, which was met to the extent possible. In any case, the downing of the F-16 by our air defense was possible, but it was not executed since it was decided not to escalate the situation,” he said.