U.S. Intelligence Does Not Exclude Russia's Attack on a NATO Member Country

U.S. intelligence has reassessed its previous evaluations regarding possible actions by Russia against a NATO member country and now does not rule out that Russian President Vladimir Putin could resort to a limited attack in the coming years, attempting to test the alliance's response and unity. This was reported by The Wall Street Journal, citing a new assessment from American intelligence.

According to U.S. officials, the scenarios being considered range from cyberattacks to limited ground incursions into NATO member territory. Previously, the American side assessed that Russia would not attempt to provoke a military confrontation with a NATO member state as long as the war in Ukraine continued. However, this assessment changed earlier this year.

One U.S. official indicated that one of the reasons for the shift is the increasing pressure on Russian leadership. Ukrainian drones are inflicting damage on both Russian military infrastructure and the oil sector, while the advancement of Russian forces on the battlefield is reportedly slow and accompanied by significant losses.

U.S. and European officials are also increasingly paying attention to incidents that are seen as potential attempts to test NATO's response. These include missile incidents recorded in Polish territory and drones that have crossed into Romanian airspace.

If Russia decides to take action against NATO amidst the ongoing war in Ukraine, a possible objective could be to create discord within the alliance and test the practical application of collective defense mechanisms, the U.S. official noted. U.S. officials estimate that the likely timeframe for such actions could range from the fall of 2026 to 2029.

At the same time, the new assessment comes amid concerns in the U.S. regarding supplies of several key weapon systems. Due to military assistance provided to Ukraine and other military operations, supplies of PrSM long-range missiles, ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles, Stinger portable anti-aircraft systems, and other weaponry have diminished.

In early July, The Telegraph also reported that the U.S. had warned Poland about a potential armed provocation by Russia, which could aim to test NATO's readiness to respond collectively. Officials from Poland and the Baltic states have also recently raised alarms about the risks of a possible new escalation by Russia.