Russia Has Lost Almost Half of Those Mobilized in 2022, Says SWP

In 2022, of the approximately 300,000 citizens mobilized in Russia, barely more than half remained at the front in Ukraine by the end of last year. This conclusion comes from Janis Kluegen, an expert at the German Institute for International Security Affairs (SWP), who analyzed data from the Russian federal budget.

Kluegen conducted calculations based on the premise that each soldier drafted during the 2022 mobilization receives a monthly payment of 158,000 rubles. Based on this data, he estimates that by the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023, around 293,000 mobilized soldiers were at the front, with this number expected to drop to 246,300 in 2024, and to 168,500 by mid-2025. If current trends continue, their numbers could decrease to about 100,000.

Although some of the mobilized soldiers have transitioned to contract service, even then the budgetary data indicates that the Russian army loses a significant portion of its personnel fighting in Ukraine each year. Meanwhile, the number of contract soldiers has increased, rising from 230,400 in 2023 to an expected 554,800 by 2025. This has allowed the total strength of Russian troops operating in Ukraine to grow from approximately 523,500 to 723,400 soldiers.

According to Kluegen’s estimates, in 2025 alone, the “permanent losses” of contract soldiers will be about 251,000, while over 385,000 new contract soldiers are expected to be recruited in that same year. Kluegen also points out that the vast scale of losses can be seen even in the public statements made by Russian officials. He estimates that if one compares the official data on the number of troops at the front with the new contract soldiers being recruited each year, it appears that Russia’s losses have reached