New Mobilization May Be Announced in Russia: Experts on Possible Timelines

According to The New York Times, some Western officials and analysts believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin may announce a new mobilization following the State Duma elections in September, despite its unpopularity among the public.

Pavel Lakiýchuk, head of military programs at the Strategy XXI Center, estimates that Russia can currently mobilize around 30,000 to 35,000 soldiers per month. He notes that this figure is roughly comparable to the Ukrainian side's estimates of Russian forces' monthly casualties, both killed and wounded.

Lakiýchuk claims that in recent months, those losses have averaged around 30,000 to 35,000 per month, with figures in July reaching between 40,000 and 46,000, according to Ukrainian data. He argues that under these conditions, Russia is struggling to simultaneously replenish its losses and accumulate reserves necessary for a new offensive.

Experts do not rule out that a new mobilization could be linked to a possible intensification of Russian offensive operations this coming winter. NYT previously reported that Moscow may bolster both front-line operations and strikes against Ukraine's infrastructure during the winter.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also stated in early August that Russia is preparing to recruit an additional 30,000 to 50,000 servicemen from North Korea.