Economic Losses in the EU Due to Heat Might Reach €180 Billion

This summer, the anomalous heat is causing increasingly significant damage to the European economy. High temperatures are leading to decreased productivity, disrupting energy and transportation operations, and adversely affecting agriculture and tourism, writes The Guardian.

According to economists from the Dutch Triodos Bank, heatwaves could result in losses of around €180 billion to the EU's GDP. Research shows that productivity begins to decline when temperatures exceed 30°C. Meanwhile, the impacts of extreme heat vary significantly across countries, depending on the duration of the heatwave, the state of infrastructure, and the structure of the economy.

France is likely to become one of the most affected economies in Europe. Severe heat and low water levels in rivers are already creating issues for nuclear energy. Since more than two-thirds of the country's electricity is produced in nuclear plants, the overheating of river water limits the cooling capabilities of reactors. On Friday, amid a new rise in temperature, as much as 15% of French nuclear capacity could have simultaneously been in a shutdown state.

Triodos estimates that the heat could reduce France's GDP by 1.4 percentage points, effectively pushing the economy into recession. This would exacerbate the already fragile state of the public finances in the country.

In Germany, the main economic risk has become the record low water levels in the Rhine River. The river is a vital transport corridor for coal, oil, gas, and petroleum products. Due to flooding in the Kaub region, vessels are forced to reduce their loads, while navigation has almost come to a halt in certain sections. The low water level poses a threat to the logistics and production chains of German industry, which is simultaneously facing growing competition from China. However, Triodos estimates that the impact of the heat on Germany’s GDP is less than 1 percentage point.

Spain has become the most affected country in Europe due to wildfires, with the Copernicus monitoring system reporting damage to nearly 275,000 hectares from the blazes. However, despite the extensive nature of the natural disaster, the economic repercussions for tourism seem relatively limited for now. Data from bank cards shows that spending by foreign tourists in the affected regions quickly rebounded after evacuations.

At the same time, due to a high number of extremely hot days, the heat could reduce Spain's expected 2.8% economic growth by about 1 percentage point this year. Italy remains particularly vulnerable, with its economy heavily reliant on tourism and agriculture. According to the Coldiretti agricultural association, climate impacts have already cost tomato, olive oil, and wine producers approximately €20 billion over the past four years.

Additionally, Italy boasts the largest hotel capacity in the EU and may face a long-term reduction in tourist flows if travelers start to prefer cooler destinations. Triodos forecasts a GDP contraction of 1.1 percentage points for Italy, making it the second most affected among the EU economies studied, after France.

Poland, on the other hand, has become a kind of exception. In 2026, there have been only slightly more hot days than usual, resulting in significantly lower immediate economic damage. However, drought has led to decreased water levels in rivers and energy issues. Specifically, some power plants have had to shut down due to low levels in the Vistula, and the country's grid operator has been forced to implement emergency measures. However, Triodos expects the Polish economy to grow by about 2.9% this year, which deviates only slightly from the European Commission's spring forecast.

Overall, economists caution that the consequences of extreme heat may not be a one-time occurrence but rather an increasing pressure factor on the economy through disruptions in energy and logistics, declining labor productivity, damage to agriculture, and changes in tourism flows.