Dangerous Numbers for Trump: Democrats Surpass Republicans on Economy

US President Donald Trump has weakened his political standing to the extent that Republicans have lost their traditional advantage in two areas that are typically considered strongholds of the party: the economy and national security.

According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted this week, Democrats and Republicans are nearly tied on issues related to wars, international conflicts, and terrorism. After the 2024 elections, Republicans had an 11-point advantage in these areas. Now, 37% of Americans believe that Democrats perform better in this domain, while 36% prefer the Republican Party.

Similar results were shown in a recent Fox News poll: 50% of respondents favored Republicans on national security issues, while 48% preferred Democrats. In January, before the war with Iran began, the difference was 12 points.

Both registered results fall within the margin of error, but experts consider the near-complete eradication of Republicans' traditional advantage noteworthy. Fox News polls have shown a significant Republican advantage in terrorism and national security for years. Before the war with Iran, Democrats had never trailed Republicans by less than 10 points in these topics.

Gallup data also points to Republicans' traditional advantage on national security. In the 21st century, Democrats have only once surpassed Republicans on this metric — in 2007. In 22 polls conducted since the September 11 attacks in 2001, Democrats have only led in these issues in 2007.

The situation regarding the economy has shifted more visibly. In the latest Fox News poll, 54% of respondents expressed a preference for Democrats' approach to economic issues, while 45% sided with Republicans. This is the largest advantage for Democrats since 2006. In April, they surpassed Republicans on this measure for the first time since 2010.

The author of the analysis believes that the results indicate that Trump has seriously miscalculated the consequences of the war with Iran and other controversial decisions, including the imposition of extensive tariffs. By setting tariffs, the president effectively took on political responsibility for the state of the economy and exacerbated voters' negative perceptions by doing virtually nothing to solve inflation issues. Meanwhile, the economic situation remains weak, as in July, the US economy lost 23,000 jobs.

At the same time, the Democratic Party itself continues to remain unpopular among Americans. Therefore, its advantage on economic issues is particularly striking. More notable is the situation surrounding national security. Just as education and health care have traditionally been considered strong themes for Democrats, defense and national security have been viewed for decades as areas where Republicans held a clear advantage.

Even wars in the Middle East that failed to gain support, which began during President George W. Bush's administration, could not long strip Republicans of that advantage. However, judging by recent polls, the war with Iran has dealt such a serious blow to Trump's positions that Americans have perceived Democrats as nearly equal to Republicans for the first time in a long while, particularly on topics that have traditionally been the political domain of the Republican Party.