If War Breaks Out, Iran Will Openly Support Armenia: Foreign Affairs

The outcome of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War is gradually but undeniably strengthening the long-hidden and dangerous tensions among regional players. This is reported by Foreign Affairs.

Against the backdrop of deepening ties between Azerbaijan and Israel, Iran has begun to worry that Israel is using Azerbaijan as a platform for actions against it. Meanwhile, an increasingly confident Azerbaijan may incite secessionist movements among its Azerbaijani population, which could lead to an escalation spiral and threaten the stability of the strategically vital South Caucasus, potentially resulting in a larger crisis.

If a new war were to break out between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Iran is likely to provide more overt support to Armenia than before, as the stakes are now much higher. For now, such a sequence of events remains purely hypothetical.

The conflict in the South Caucasus could escalate into a crisis that could draw in the U.S. and NATO (by Azerbaijan, Israel, and Turkey), as well as Russia.