Old Persian Saying: He Who Rules Artsakh, Rules the Caucasus - For Russia, Iran, and Turkey, the South Caucasus is an Existence Issue - S. Danielyan

The South Caucasus is home to three neighboring countries facing serious issues of territorial integrity and demographics. Political scientist Stepan Danielyan commented on this on his Facebook page.

"We have an unclear understanding of our region, and for this reason, we are trying to comprehend what is happening with various conspiracy theories. Naturally, incorrect perceptions lead to incorrect conclusions.

The South Caucasus has three neighbors, all of which face significant problems regarding territorial integrity and demographics.

Turkey's main issue is Kurdistan, which is a primary factor in its internal and external policies. The Kurds, unlike the Turks, are experiencing significant demographic growth, and their inhabited areas are also expanding. This means that a potential Kurdistan is also growing territorially.

The same situation exists in Iran. The Persians also face demographic issues, with other ethnicities experiencing growth. Iran has issues with Azerbaijanis, Kurds, Baluchis, Turkmen, and more.

The same applies to Russia, where Russians have serious demographic problems, and the potential risk of separatism is high. The list of separatists is extensive.

Countries struggling with issues of state integrity are compelled to expand beyond their borders to avoid disintegration, meaning they need to implement expansionist policies while also seeking overarching ideologies to unite their constituent ethnic groups.

Shiism helps save Iran, while Turkey has opted for two contradictory ideologies - Islamism and Pan-Turkism. Russia is still in search, relying on traditional values.

Without going into too much detail to avoid turning this into a 50-page document, let's draw some conclusions based on this information. All three countries are expanding for self-preservation, and their vectors of advancement intersect in our region. For all three, the South Caucasus poses an existential issue, and they are willing to do a lot.

There will either be military conflict among them or they will attempt to find a unified solution, at least temporarily. As we see, there is no fourth player here, but there are forces that would benefit from a great war between these countries, weakening all three, ideally leading to their fragmentation.

To put it bluntly, this is the situation.
P.S. There is an old Persian saying: He who rules Artsakh, rules the Caucasus."