Erdogan Will Exit the Game and Leave Aliyev Alone If Major Players Do Not Support Him: Stanislav Tarasov

The Russian news agency RIA Novosti has once again addressed the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, presenting the latest developments in the situation, statements from political figures, and potential scenarios for resolving the conflict.

Caucasus expert and candidate of historical sciences Stanislav Tarasov, discussing the currently escalated conflict, notes that the recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh's independence would radically change the situation.

“If Yerevan takes this step, then Armenia will legally enter into a military confrontation with Azerbaijan, which considers that land as its own. In this case, the conflict will escalate; it is now limited to Nagorno-Karabakh, although it is seen as an Armenian-Azerbaijani issue,” said the Caucasus expert.

Tarasov also added that as long as the fighting continues, it is premature to talk about future diplomatic actions. “Turkey speaks of a war ‘until victory,’ although their apparent main staff, planning operations, has not reached a blitzkrieg. If the Azerbaijani army had captured Stepanakert, the conversation would be different. But the conflict continues,” he clarified. He added that, in the world, especially in Europe, Armenia enjoys greater support. Therefore, the prolongation of armed conflict is beneficial for both Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh.

According to Tarasov, reports from the battle zones indicate that the war will not conclude in the near future. He believes that Aliyev has limited his options for maneuvering with Ankara's cooperation in many areas. “Erdogan is still known for his very negative character in adventurous situations. Turkey is at war in Syria and Libya, and for many years its army has fought unsuccessfully against the Kurdish armed group Peshmerga in the Middle East; despite the propaganda, it has not achieved any serious victories. Now, if major world players do not support Erdogan, he will have to exit the game and leave Aliyev alone. Previously, to win in other directions, Atatürk handed Baku over to Moscow, where the Red Army entered without firing a shot; thus, Aliyev must also be prepared for this scenario,” predicts the expert.

Tarasov also notes that Ankara's activities in the region are criticized not only by European capitals but also by Tehran. The historian recalls that these lands were once under the control of Persia and it is possible that the Islamic state may now decide that it has more rights to them than Turkey.

He forecasts that if Baku's military actions yield no results, a compromise proposal will be made to declare Nagorno-Karabakh a mandated territory.